The 2025 Miami Marlins and the Joys of Low Expectations

The Miami Marlins are not supposed to be this good. Nice!

Led Zeppelin’s “Heartbreaker” opening riff

“Hey fellas, have you heard the news? You know the Marlins are back in town…

It won’t take long, just watch and see all the fellas lay their money down…”

That would be nice wouldn’t it? For more of the fellas (and gals) to lay their money down and come watch the hottest team in baseball, the Miami Marlins, winners of seven straight, all on the road? That probably won’t happen, as it’s going to take much more than a surprising little run to win back the scorned South Florida fanbase. 

The Marlins (37-45) have been better than expected, though, that much is certain. I find myself enjoying this season for a variety of reasons, but I think the core of it is simple: low expectations equals more joy and, sometimes, better baseball.

More Joy

Would you rather be let down based on high expectations or pleasantly surprised based on low expectations? The latter is better, obviously. The goal in Clayton McCullough’s first season at the helm as manager seemed to be not losing 100 games. Anything less would be an accomplishment. The front office’s main offseason acquisition was Cal Quantrill, a #5 starter who occasionally pitches like a #4. They were the last team in the league to spend money at all. This season was a top-to-bottom organizational punt in every way the front office could control. 

Knowing that, what do the remaining fans have to cheer for? Anything, really. Griffin Conine hit a bomb on the day his dad, Jeff, AKA Mr. Marlin, became the first member of the Marlins Hall of Fame. Agustin Ramirez got called up and started breaking records. Kyle Stowers hit a walkoff grand slam off a 290 MPH Mason Miller fastball. You don’t get many good seasons as a Marlins fan, but that doesn’t mean you don’t get good moments. Those are usually more memorable anyway. 

I’ll take the high expectations, of course, since they usually are borne from the team actually being good. But when your mood doesn’t hinge on the outcome of a Marlins game, you’ll find there are many other ways to have fun watching. I guess I have Bruce Sherman and Peter Bendix to thank for that? Thanks so much, dorks. 

Better Baseball

Avisail Garcia played 153 games across three seasons for the Miami Marlins, slashing .217/.260/.322. His four-year, $53 million contract fucked the Marlins more than Avisail fucked Prince Fielder’s wife, which was a lot, allegedly. Tim Anderson, whose Marlins contract was much cheaper at one-year, $5 million, hit .214/.237/.226 across 65 games. Jean Segura (two years, $17 million), hit .219/.277/.279 in 85 games. None of these contracts were that large when you look at the type of dough the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and others are giving out, but when you’re the Marlins, you need expensive players to perform. And if they don’t? Well buckle up, buttercup, because you’re about to watch Avisail Garcia jog down the line after grounding into a 6-4-3 double play on a 2-0 fastball down the middle. 

Teams who are not financially tied to specific players have more freedom to run a meritocracy. Matt Mervis was leading the team in home runs when he was sent down to Triple-A near the end of May. Why? Because he was mired in a terrible slump and probably needed some time to work out the kinks in his swing. If Matt Mervis, who was acquired from the Cubs last December and is making $763K this season, was a big-money signing, you can bet he would still be in Miami and potentially still stuck in the mud. That leads to losses. 

If You Stink, You Sit

The highest paid Marlin this season is Sandy Alcantara, at $17.3 million. After that, the payroll table falls off a cliff all the way to $4.5 million, which is what Jesus Sanchez is making. Only six players will make over a million bucks this season. This is a team with exactly one player, in the aforementioned Alcantara, who is likely exempt from losing playing time or being sent down due to poor performance. Clayton McCullough is able to put his best nine out there night in and night out. He can optimize at all times. This is not always possible when you start writing eight- or nine-figure contracts. 

The Tampa Bay Rays, who’ve been so good while spending so little money for so long that it’s practically a parlor trick by now, are proof that roster and lineup flexibility helps tremendously. The perks to spending big are obvious; you get stars who sell jerseys and put butts in seats. But if you’re still able to get production for pennies on the dollar without getting yourself sucked into an underachieving money-vacuum like the Jean Seguras of the world, you have an edge not every team has. 

The Marlins currently have this edge, and it’s leading to some surprisingly good baseball. Are the playoffs calling? Hell no. But 75 wins is not out of the question. In a season void of expectations, that’s at least a little something to be happy about. 

Subscribe now for updates on the latest and greatest banter from the Peanut Gallery!