Is Sandy Alcantara Still an Ace? Probably Not.

It's been four years. It's fair to wonder if Sandy Alcantara will ever return to his ace form.

Sandy Alcantara’s second start of this season was one of the best of his career. He tossed a “Maddux” (a complete game shutout requiring less than 100 pitches) at home against the White Sox in a 10-0 Marlins victory. After the game, Sandy expressed how proud he was of his accomplishment, while also throwing a little dig at the home crowd, or lack thereof.

“It's been a long time without throwing a complete game, but this one is special for me. All my family (is) here. Fans not here, but we still love them because we know this is a hard sport, and we know sometimes they gotta do something. They weren't in the house, but yeah, today was great for me.”

Dumb. Really dumb thing to say. This game was played at 1:10 on a Wednesday; already a tough ask for fans who presumably, you know, have jobs. Miami Marlins’ attendance has long been an issue for the franchise. You can blame the fans all you want, but I think a certain amount of grace should be extended due to the incessant penny pinching and roster overhaul we’ve dealt with for basically the team’s entire history. They won 84 games and made the playoffs in 2023. Four total players remain from that roster. 

There’s one more thing that makes this statement from Sandy tone deaf: he hasn't been very good.

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Not a Draw Anymore

Though Miami sports fans in general are a fickle bunch, we will show up when there’s a draw. Jose Fernandez? Butts in the seats guaranteed, even when the team stunk. Dontrelle Willis? Same story. Those guys were draws because they performed at a high level and with gusto. Sandy doesn’t operate with the same flair as Jose and the D-Train, but he has still been a guy you could rely on to pack the house (relatively speaking). This peaked in 2022 when he became the first Marlin to win the Cy Young, going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and 180 ERA+.

Unfortunately for him and everyone involved, it’s been downhill from there.

2023 wasn’t a bad season for an average pitcher. A 4.14 ERA and 113 ERA+ is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s hardly what you expect from a front-line starter who anchors your pitching staff. His season ended with catastrophe, sadly, as he sustained a forearm injury in early September that would require Tommy John surgery. So ended his decent (at best) 2023, while also wiping out all of 2024.

Disaster of 2025

Sandy showed up in 2025 ready to recapture his former glory. The fastball velocity was sitting in the upper-90s. He could still go deep into games when he was feeling it. Only one thing was missing: his pitching ability.

Sandy Alcantara was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in 2025. Not the Marlins. Not the NL East. Not even the National League. All of the Majors. His 81 ERA+ was sixth worst among pitchers who threw over 150 innings. His 5.36 ERA? Third worst. For a team that surprised everyone by winning 79 games and being mathematically alive in the playoff race on the last day of the season, you could argue Sandy was the biggest culprit for them coming up short. He’s their ace. He’s their horse. But he performed like a #5 starter, at best. That’s what happens when you miss less bats and walk more batters. His stellar command had taken a step back, and teams took advantage.

His numbers are still respectable this season, buoyed by three stellar starts to begin the campaign, but his comeuppance is on its way. His walk rate has risen from where it was last year, while his strikeout rate has dropped. Overall, his Baseball Savant metrics grade out as above average, which might be where Sandy’s sweet spot is. He’s an above average pitcher. Not an ace. 

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Not That Guy, Pal

It stinks, but facts are facts. Sandy hasn’t been elite since 2022. I wish he was. He's been here a long time and has given us tons of awesome performances and memories, but he’s pitched to a 4.64 ERA across 411 innings since he won the NL Cy Young that season. Can Sandy go deeper into games than any other pitcher? Yes, he’s still got that in him. That makes him unique in modern baseball. But his mediocre rate stats can’t be ignored. Perhaps a change of scenery/approach will unlock the ace version of Sandy Alcantara we saw for two-ish seasons. Or perhaps he is who he is; a #3 starter who can give you length to preserve your bullpen, while always keeping you in the game. 

“Fans not here?” Buddy, we’d be there if you were who we thought you were. 

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